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Mad Cow Disease And Computers

It has been almost eight years since bovine spongiform encephalopathy, more commonly known as Mad Cow Disease, was an international story.  While dramatic agricultural reforms in the meat industry played a large role in keeping Mad Cow Disease from spreading, computer support via computerized models continue to play a key role in monitoring and preventing a Mad Cow outbreak.  Computer models that calculate far more accurately than a single person could are now protecting humans.

According to “Mad Cow And Computer Models: The U.S. Response To BSE,” the sheer number of variables needed to calculate the vectors of a Mad Cow Disease outbreak are staggering.  Despite the seemingly daunting task of correlating all of the necessary data through computer support techniques, the USDA now has a model to predict and calculate the vectors of a Mad Cow Disease outbreak.

One of the significant challenges in predicting and tracing the outbreak of a prion disease like Mad Cow Disease is that the disease is only evident through an autopsy of an infected cow.  Once an infected cow is found, the race begins to trace back all of the relevant factors in that cow’s life.  Those factors include: the food source that each infected cow was fed from, every location where the cow lived, every cow in the herd with the infected cow each time the infected cow was sold and the location of the infected cow’s parents and offspring, if any exist.

To get this data, the USDA must have access to complicated databases of shipping records, sales records and inventory controls for both cattle and the cattle’s food supply.  While the USDA must be vigilant for these models to work, the most common challenge to the model is human error, missing data, or computer support failures.  However, with the database working ideally, the USDA hopes to have a rapid response plan in place to prevent both an outbreak that would endanger the United States and a series of sweeping mass cattle executions that would effectively end the beef industry.

The USDA’s database, if properly maintained, will allow ranchers to target specific cattle when authorities find an infected cow.  Based on feed source, herd and sales records, the USDA would inform every rancher who had a potentially exposed cow in their herds.  In other words, the database provides the possibility that the infected cow’s food source could be traced back and then predicted for all cows in the database.  Then, ranchers would be notified of which of their cows were likely infected with Mad Cow Disease and they could be killed before ever entering the human food chain.  And, if potentially infected cows already entered the human consumption market, the USDA could issue a more precise recall.

The computer models for Mad Cow Disease rely upon vigilance, precision and updates over a long period of time, but they offer the greatest potential for humans to survive an outbreak.

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